America Chose This

Unlike in 2016 and 2020, it was unambiguous, and Trump's margin was large enough that I doubt there was anything Democrats could have done

I was wrong about the election, and wrong about America. With the polls saying it was anyone’s race, I predicted that a swell of voters who value democracy, pluralism, and freedom would tip the balance to Kamala Harris. I guess I have egg on my face for that, but it doesn’t matter. I do not regret being optimistic, writing an article that made readers feel hopeful heading into Election Day, even though that hope quickly curdled. This was going to feel terrible regardless.

I was wrong on the intangibles — the “I believe in America” stuff — and right on the rest. This election really was a national referendum on Constitutional democracy, the U.S.-led international order, and the importance of acknowledging factual reality. It’s just that the American people voted against.

America chose this, and there’s nothing ambiguous about it. It isn’t like 2016, when Trump was an outsider businessman, or 2020 when he was the sitting president. This time it’s after a coup attempt, criminal prosecutions, prominent officials from his first administration warning he’s a fascist, and a presidential campaign that lived down to that label.

And it was his strongest showing in three elections (five if you count the 2018 and 2022 midterms). The tallying isn’t over, but Trump is on track to sweep all seven swing states, and possibly win the popular vote for the first time.

In 2016, Trump’s narrow Electoral College victory coupled with a popular vote loss meant just about anything could’ve made the difference, but this time it was outside that margin. More effort — more door-knocking, phone-banking, ad buying, online posting — wouldn’t have changed it. A different point of emphasis, or different policy position wouldn’t have changed it. Mainstream media choices of focus and framing, which deserve criticism on the merits, didn’t do it. Voter complacency, third party candidates, or foreign interference didn’t either. In the endless Democratic debate of “shift left or shift towards the center?,” neither answer would have overcome the electorate’s lurch to the right.

Post-election analysis will comb through the Harris campaign for mistakes, pundits and activists will claim that precisely following their personal advice would’ve transformed the race, but I still think it was well executed, and I’m skeptical anyone could’ve done better.

I understand the process argument that Joe Biden never should have run for reelection, which would have given Democrats a chance to go through a normal primary. But while some will claim that their favorite alternative would have beat Trump, no one can possibly know, and Trump’s margin of victory appears insurmountable.

Anti-incumbent sentiment, such as over inflation, would be directed at the party in power no matter their nominee. It’s fantasy to think a different Democrat could have won millions more votes by running hard against Biden. The vast majority who want that vote Republican. Maybe these hyper-polarized elections come down to “throw the bums out” voters swinging against Trump and the Republicans in 2020, then against the Democrats in 2024.

As for any Biden administration policies that created a drag on Harris’s campaign, they’d drag on another nominee’s too. Trump had a strong showing in a variety of regions and demographics, indicating widespread support. For example, Biden’s Gaza war policies were expected to weaken Harris politically in Michigan among its relatively high population of Muslim and Arab Americans. But while we’ll need to see final totals and more detailed analysis, it looks like Trump’s gains in Michigan were similar to those in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Whatever number of votes Harris lost due to U.S. support for Israel — or any specific issue, for that matter — it was decently smaller than Trump’s across-the-board gains. Even if Harris or another candidate could have expressed opposition to Biden’s policies in a way that won over more votes than it lost, there’s no way it would’ve been enough.

To the extent racism and sexism helped Trump against Harris, it likely would’ve helped him against any Democratic nominee. The Democrats are the party of objecting to racism and sexism. And there’s virtually no chance they would have nominated another old white man to follow Joe Biden.

Countries that slide into populist authoritarianism typically see it happen amidst big dislocations like a depression with mass unemployment and the legacy of losing a major war, but not this time. The U.S. economy is doing well, outperforming every other developed country. The average price of gas is back near $3.00 per gallon, over $0.30 lower than a year ago. Crime is down. For the first time since 2001, American troops aren’t fighting in a “forever war.” The Biden-Harris administration got big bills through Congress, many of them bipartisan, directing hundreds of billions of dollars around the country, with an emphasis on “left behind” areas. That would buoy any Democrat, but apparently not enough.

Harris did all the stuff people say Democratic campaigns should do. She offered appealing progressive policies, such as expanding Medicare to cover home care of elderly relatives. With abortion rights, she had a popular position on a highly salient issue, and hit it hard, but not so much that it took away from talking about the economy. Besides policies, she did the abstract “something to vote for, not just against” thing with her pitch to turn the page on the divisive period America entered into with Trump’s 2016 campaign.   

It’s a stretch to say this was a policy election at all. Trump’s policy platform was mass deportation, tariffs, and putting himself above the law. Otherwise, he just said he’d make everything better and didn’t explain how, or proposed things that nearly all policy experts said would make things worse. It didn’t matter.

Donald Trump 2024 was the worst candidate in modern American history. I’m talking basic things like sounding incoherent and unhinged, demeaning the United States and various groups of Americans, being a convicted felon, having blatant financial corruption, and facing numerous accusations of sexual assault.

I’m skeptical of the theory that Trump voters simply didn’t know a lot of this, and wouldn’t vote for him if they did. He’s done so many awful things, as have the people around him, that some gets though. His Madison Square Garden rally last month, for example, showcased the MAGA movement’s racism and violent threats, getting attention on TikTok and other atypical information streams.

Millions voted for it anyway. Some revel in the awfulness, some don’t care for it but obviously don’t mind it that much, some deny it to rationalize their partisanship. But they saw it. 

I think this will go very bad, and the near future will likely be darker than anything most living Americans have ever experienced. I hope I’m wrong, more than I’ve ever hoped to be wrong in my life. I really don’t think I am.

But I’m not getting into that here. I’ve publicly warned about it a lot over the last four years, as have many others. The point of those warnings was for the American people to choose a different path. They didn’t.

Pro-democracy voices did what we could with the tools we had. Via every available platform, we called out the threat as it developed, refused to let January 6 get swept under the rug, and outlined what would happen if Trump returned to the White House. This election result isn’t because we were unclear, complacent, or excessively cautious.

We weren’t just talking to ourselves, but we never had a large enough audience, with enough people we were able to convince. There just aren’t enough Americans who are interested, or care.

I do not regret believing in the America of “a shining city on a hill” and “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice” when it still had a chance, even though it turned out to not exist in 2024, and maybe never did.