Can't Make Peace Without the Combatants
Trump declaring peace in Lebanon without getting Israel on board first complicates U.S.-Iran negotiations, and handed the Iranians leverage
Only a few days after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. But it wasn’t American forces that drew the sharp response from Tehran. Instead, the Iranians said Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon meant America violated the deal. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are party to the MOU, but the “immediate and permanent termination” of their conflict in Lebanon is listed as a condition in the document’s first article.
Professional diplomats would have insisted on more specificity about what that language meant. It’s unlikely seasoned American negotiators would have agreed without getting Israeli buy-in first, but the Trump regime disdains that sort of expertise. This disregard for detail fits President Donald Trump’s consistent approach to conflict diplomacy: seek the minimum that can be called a “peace deal,” punting on core issues and excluding conflict participants as needed. Produce something that’s more vision than plan and proclaim peace. Public praise and positive press will follow. Actual follow-through will not.
A closer examination of the MOU shows how predictable it was that Lebanon would become a sticking point. A ceasefire…
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