Honestly, I genuinely don't know how those who advocate for withdrawn will prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven and operational base for terrorists. I'm not even sure they espouse that as a goal.
Afghanistan is now Pakistan's problem, and, at least for now, Pakistan can no longer play both sides in its frenemy game with the US and the Taliban. Western commentators have been oblivious to the significant challenge the US withdrawl poses to Islamabad's domestic politics and foreign policy, and to the balance of power between Pak, India, China, Russia, Iran, and other regional players. The US may yet realize advantages by stirring the pot and then standing at a remove from the resulting struggles.
Great, fair review of the situation, but a couple of points bear examination:
1. Yes, Western nations are morally obligated to accept asylum seekers from Afghanistan, but what a security nightmare!!! This is just the kind of opening that terrorists love to exploit to get access to Western countries and do their evil deeds. I foresee them stealing the IDs of individuals formerly known to be loyal to the Afghan government or who worked with the Americans and posing as them, or even blackmailing such individuals by threatening their families in Afghanistan, brainwashing them, and sending them forth to pose as refugees and act as terrorists in Western Nations. All kinds of opportunities exist for terrorist exploitation of Western guilt and vociferous, bleeding heart calls to accept Afghan refugees. We've had a bit of a respite from terrorist attacks lately, and it's making my stomach turn just to think about the possibility of a new wave proceeding from this mess.
2. The idea of a quasi-permanent stay of American troops does make some sense, but there is deep historical sentiment against such a Western presence in Afghanistan, which differentiates it from places like South Korea and Germany. The essay would have benefited from discussion of this difficult factor, and indeed, its role in helping to convince the past few American presidents that we should or must evacuate the country, and in the success of the Taliban, which strongly identifies itself as anti-Western imperialism.
What strikes me is how the Taliban were able to, and were allowed to, grow to the size they are.
After 9-11, America spent years dismantling the Taliban: They were pushed out of every power center, their numbers dwindled, their infrastructure was captured or destroyed, their leadership was decapitated (sometimes literally) multiple times.
This means that 20 years later, the bulk of Taliban forces were under the age of 10 when the war started, a good chunk weren't even born. These boys grew up in a Democratic, coalition-led, American-backed Afghanistan and still chose to take up arms in a meatgrinder of a civil war.
I don't understand this, and I wonder if you could touch on it? Were these kids abducted while young and extremized? Was it just too soon and they didn't know better? Was it a rejection of Western Values? Did the enemy have better memes? How did Afghanistan lose that generation?
Great piece! Thank you.
Honestly, I genuinely don't know how those who advocate for withdrawn will prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven and operational base for terrorists. I'm not even sure they espouse that as a goal.
Thank you, Nicholas, for this well-balanced report.
Afghanistan is now Pakistan's problem, and, at least for now, Pakistan can no longer play both sides in its frenemy game with the US and the Taliban. Western commentators have been oblivious to the significant challenge the US withdrawl poses to Islamabad's domestic politics and foreign policy, and to the balance of power between Pak, India, China, Russia, Iran, and other regional players. The US may yet realize advantages by stirring the pot and then standing at a remove from the resulting struggles.
Great, fair review of the situation, but a couple of points bear examination:
1. Yes, Western nations are morally obligated to accept asylum seekers from Afghanistan, but what a security nightmare!!! This is just the kind of opening that terrorists love to exploit to get access to Western countries and do their evil deeds. I foresee them stealing the IDs of individuals formerly known to be loyal to the Afghan government or who worked with the Americans and posing as them, or even blackmailing such individuals by threatening their families in Afghanistan, brainwashing them, and sending them forth to pose as refugees and act as terrorists in Western Nations. All kinds of opportunities exist for terrorist exploitation of Western guilt and vociferous, bleeding heart calls to accept Afghan refugees. We've had a bit of a respite from terrorist attacks lately, and it's making my stomach turn just to think about the possibility of a new wave proceeding from this mess.
2. The idea of a quasi-permanent stay of American troops does make some sense, but there is deep historical sentiment against such a Western presence in Afghanistan, which differentiates it from places like South Korea and Germany. The essay would have benefited from discussion of this difficult factor, and indeed, its role in helping to convince the past few American presidents that we should or must evacuate the country, and in the success of the Taliban, which strongly identifies itself as anti-Western imperialism.
What strikes me is how the Taliban were able to, and were allowed to, grow to the size they are.
After 9-11, America spent years dismantling the Taliban: They were pushed out of every power center, their numbers dwindled, their infrastructure was captured or destroyed, their leadership was decapitated (sometimes literally) multiple times.
This means that 20 years later, the bulk of Taliban forces were under the age of 10 when the war started, a good chunk weren't even born. These boys grew up in a Democratic, coalition-led, American-backed Afghanistan and still chose to take up arms in a meatgrinder of a civil war.
I don't understand this, and I wonder if you could touch on it? Were these kids abducted while young and extremized? Was it just too soon and they didn't know better? Was it a rejection of Western Values? Did the enemy have better memes? How did Afghanistan lose that generation?