The Iran War and Global Energy Markets Are Beyond Trump's Control
These are problems he started, and can't BS his way through
Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S.-Israeli attack means widespread economic disruption. There is reliance on energy through all aspects of the economy. There are also additional oil effects—things like uses for metallurgy processes, for example, different byproducts used for agriculture—and oil is a global commodity, meaning that it is produced in many different places. The United States both imports and exports; it refines products, it drills crude oil, and all of this is on a day-to-day supply chain. So when things get disrupted, there’s a little slack in the system, but really not much, and then the prices go up. A 20 percent supply decline is incredibly disruptive—it means that there is simply not enough oil to go around.
This was the explicit thing that we saw coming. And by “we,” I mean the broad national security community. It is very likely that people inside the military and the national security establishment told this to the White House—whether Trump himself heard it, or didn’t listen, or others tried to tell him, who knows. But this was the exact reason why we said: yes, confront Iran, but in smarter ways, as opposed to this one thing. This is their big leverage—don’t play into it. And now the U.S. has, and it’s not going to clear up soon.
The paragraphs above are an excerpt from a podcast interview on the Iran war, Trump, and the many big implications that I recorded this week with Greg Sargent. You can hear the whole thing for free by searching on various podcast apps for The Daily Blast podcast from the New Republic, or by following this link. Or you can read the transcript here.