Trump Attacks Iran
This path was set nearly a decade ago, and there appears to be no long-term plan
“If the U.S. ends up withdrawing” from the Iran nuclear deal, I wrote in March 2017, “it sets the Middle East on a path to two possible futures: (1) A nuclear Iran. (2) War. Both are much worse than the status quo.” Nine years later, America launched a war on Iran.
I knew those were the only two options because nuclear technology is decades old, and the only way to really prevent a country from getting it is if they choose not to. Iran borders nuclear-armed Pakistan, and has a long-running adversarial relationship with nuclear-armed Israel and America—plus the Iranians saw the U.S. negotiate with North Korea, which has nukes, while attacking Iraq, which didn’t—so they have reason to want a bomb. Sabotage, cyberattacks, killing nuclear scientists, and limited military action could set back Iran’s nuclear development, while paradoxically increasing its incentive to establish a deterrent. The only lasting way to prevent Iran from going nuclear was convincing this regime to give it up, or forcibly replace them with a regime that will.
The 2015 nuclear deal, more formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), restricted Iran’s nuclear activities. It was the painstakingly negotiated, highly detailed result of over a decade of diplomacy. The international community, backed by UN Security Council resolutions, sanctioned Iran for years, offering history’s tightest nuclear deal as an alternative. Iran eventually agreed, and the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Russia, China, and the E.U. all signed. Three years later, Iran was following it—but Trump broke it anyway, saying that “maximum pressure” would get a “better deal.”
It predictably didn’t. Iran was under less pressure than before JCPOA, since most of the world didn’t reimpose sanctions when the U.S. broke an agreement they wanted to keep.
Trump reneging on the Iran nuclear deal closed off the diplomatic path…
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