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Interesting article. I'd be curious to hear your views on the difference between computational and qualitative approaches to forecasting in our current intellectual climate.

There is a giant mismatch between the two. On one hand, there are a lot of people who excel at creating accurate, highly complex computational models, but who believe that the world itself consists in the same processes of computation and information flow, such that qualitative considerations are epiphenomenal. On the other hand, it can be argued that the world is full of qualities, and these should be addressed on their own terms, except that we haven't learn to handle them with the same rigor.

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