Democrats aren’t doomed in next year’s midterms, but history is not on their side
Nicely done. The two recent midterms in which the president's party didn't lose House seats had, say, extenuating circumstances. In '98, Clinton beat back the GOP's ham-handed attempt to remove him from office. Voters made the GOP pay.
In 2002, GWB was still enjoying strong support for his work post-9/11 and the Iraq War hadn't yet started.
As you mention, if there's a strong economic recovery under way, Biden probably will get credit for it; moreover, if Republicans are stuck on running MTG/Gaetz/Boebert types, non-crazy Democrats could pick up seats as well.