I’m skeptical, because of that “negative partisanship” you refer to. TX white culture is very Republican. I think enough GOP there will “come home” to their party for them to win most of these races. I do have some hope that Paxton will be repellent enough for some of them to leave the Senate ballot blank and let Talarico slip through. Kind of like Doug Jones vs Roy Moore in AL, they’ll tell themselves they can knock out Talarico with a more conventional GOP candidate in 6 years.
Jones-Moore in Alabama is a good example. Moore was repellant, and so is Paxton, albeit not in the same way. The Alabama race was a special election, which tends to favor the opposition party, and non-presidential elections in the Trump era have seen higher Democratic turnout. Similar applies to the midterms. And Texas isn't as red a state as Alabama.
That said, I don't disagree with your skepticism. I'll believe it when I see it, not before.
But the state isn't as white as it used to be, and today's Republicans are running as open bigots. Even one big Democratic win in the state would be an earthquake. It's no sure thing, but it's in play.
I’m skeptical, because of that “negative partisanship” you refer to. TX white culture is very Republican. I think enough GOP there will “come home” to their party for them to win most of these races. I do have some hope that Paxton will be repellent enough for some of them to leave the Senate ballot blank and let Talarico slip through. Kind of like Doug Jones vs Roy Moore in AL, they’ll tell themselves they can knock out Talarico with a more conventional GOP candidate in 6 years.
Jones-Moore in Alabama is a good example. Moore was repellant, and so is Paxton, albeit not in the same way. The Alabama race was a special election, which tends to favor the opposition party, and non-presidential elections in the Trump era have seen higher Democratic turnout. Similar applies to the midterms. And Texas isn't as red a state as Alabama.
That said, I don't disagree with your skepticism. I'll believe it when I see it, not before.
But the state isn't as white as it used to be, and today's Republicans are running as open bigots. Even one big Democratic win in the state would be an earthquake. It's no sure thing, but it's in play.