Republicans are freaking out about Texas. In the upcoming midterm elections, Democrats are competitive in the biggest red state—especially for U.S. Senator, but also for governor, some Republican-held House seats, and the state legislature—and it’s mostly Donald Trump’s fault. The president’s approval rating in Texas is underwater, at negative eight to negative 18 points, shockingly low for a longtime red state he won by over 13 points in 2024. If Democratic candidates win some of these races, not only will it shift institutional power away from Republicans, it will be a psychic shock to the American right, a sign that parts of the country they consider quintessentially theirs are turning against them.
The sweatiest panic is over Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, who leads in polling averages by over two points. He’s been running as a religious Christian, emphasizing how his faith informs his values of respect, concern for the poor, and kindness to strangers, trying to reclaim Christian identity from the Americans who invoke Jesus as they act violent, venal, and cruel. In taking on bigoted Christian Nationalists directly, Talarico is running a cultural campaign as well as a political one.
In the last weeks of the midterm campaign, Republicans have made keeping the Senate seat from Texas a top priority, but it reeks of desperation. Trump has been holding rallies in Texas, and denouncing the Democratic candidate as “James TalaFREAKO,” as if that weak attempt at an insulting nickname will sway voters. Vice President JD Vance has also focused on the race, appearing in Texas and snivelingly implying Talarico is gay (he isn’t), as if that would be a good reason to vote for Talarico’s Republican opponent Ken Paxton (it isn’t).
Elon Musk has poured a mind-boggling $168 million into the race, single-handedly funding most of Paxton’s advertising. It’s chump change for the world’s richest man, but more than many Senate campaigns’ entire spending. Much of the anti-Talarico, pro-Paxton ads have focused on the same sort of anti-LGBT smears Vance and Trump are pushing. That lie-infused hatred might be popular on Musk’s website X and some right-wing podcasts, but it’s cringily off-putting elsewhere.
Speaking of far right online activists, one tried lying that Talarico was in treatment at an Ohio mental health hospital, pretending he had proof. Republican political operatives and media figures promoted it, including Musk, Fox News personalities, and a Paxton campaign advisor. But it fell apart almost immediately, with Talarico appearing in Texas and the Ohio hospital saying he never stayed there.
Boosting Talarico’s chances, Republicans nominated a terrible candidate. Paxton is a sleazy crook, so crooked that when he was Texas’s attorney general, the Republican-led Texas House of Representatives impeached him on 20 counts, including bribery, abusing the power of his office to protect a big donor, and retaliation against whistleblowers (the state senate declined to convict and got him reinstated). In the primary for this year’s U.S. Senate race, Paxton narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, in large part due to Trump’s endorsement. It’s in character for Trump to back the most corrupt option, but that doesn’t make Paxton appealing outside the MAGA faithful.
In addition to Talarico, Democratic candidate for Texas governor Gina Hinojosa is doing pretty well, trailing incumbent Greg Abbott by less than three points. To put that in perspective, Abbott won reelection in 2022 by nearly eleven points, and in 2018 won by over 13. Hinojosa is a longer shot than Talarico, but has a better chance than any Democrat this century. If she wins, Texas would have its first Democratic governor since Anne Richards in 1995, and even if she doesn’t, a close result shows Texas getting purpler.
Democrats are also competitive in multiple House races, most notably with tejano singer Bobby Pulido. He’s leading incumbent Republican Monica De La Cruz by over seven points in the South Texas, heavily Latino 15th district. In 2024, De La Cruz got reelected by a vote of 57.1% to 42.9%. A Pulido victory would not only net the Democrats one of the seats they need to gain control of the U.S. House, it would also highlight how Trump’s 2024 gains with Latino voters have entirely reversed, showing that the supposedly multiethnic MAGA coalition was an inflation-driven post-COVID fluke, not the future.
Right-wing panic over this shifting political landscape also helps explain the recent outpouring of racism against South Asians in Texas, in particular from Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, a powerful state office that oversees the oil and gas industry. French caused a controversy last month when he flipped out over a picture of fans at a University of Texas (UT) football game:
French’s post went viral on Elon Musk’s X, and got promoted by right-wing podcasts. One hosted by Christopher Rufo—a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute think tank and the most influential Republican operative on higher education policy—fretted for hours about “the Indian Question,” phrasing that recalls Nazi Germany’s fixation on “the Jewish Question.” Rufo’s cohost Jonathan Keeperman defended the question, arguing that “it’s important even to preserve a white majority and preserve this white, Anglo-Protestant sort of character.”
Culture warriors like this sometimes claim that they’re not racists, they’re just concerned about culture, and don’t want immigrants who oppose assimilating to America. But French, Keeperman and the rest denounced some guys wearing cowboys hats and University of Texas gear celebrating their college football team, which is about as American as culture gets. Transparently, their entire objection is to these students’ race.
French is the favorite to win his election, leading in polls by about four points. Though in the last election for Texas Railroad Commissioner, the Republican won by 15. Even a narrow Democratic loss would show that racism like French’s is increasingly a political liability in Texas, which is one of the most diverse states in America, and growing less white.
Voters who still say they’re undecided might break hard for Republicans. Negative partisanship could kick in, getting more Texans who disapprove of Trump’s performance as president and don’t like Paxton or other GOP candidates to nevertheless turn out to oppose Democrats. As with all elections, there’s a chance the polls are off, underrating Republicans’ chances (though they could also be underrating Democrats’.)
But without counting chickens before they hatch, we can say Texas looks more competitive than it has in decades. With widespread public anger over ICE abuses, the failing Iran war, rising inflation, and other Trump-caused problems, Democrats’ have their best chance this century. And even if the state returns to the Republican fold in the 2028 presidential election, a Senator Talarico would have four years left in his term, and a Governor Hinojosa would have two.
In the meantime, any Democratic success in Texas in this year’s election would be a psychic blow to the culture war-obsessed American right, making them think they’re losing the country. It would show that millions of Americans reject their bigotry outright, and how for even those who don’t, candidates saying they hate brown-skinned people and LGBT people doesn’t overcome lawbreaking, economic mismanagement, and international failure, not even in the heart of Texas.
I’m skeptical, because of that “negative partisanship” you refer to. TX white culture is very Republican. I think enough GOP there will “come home” to their party for them to win most of these races. I do have some hope that Paxton will be repellent enough for some of them to leave the Senate ballot blank and let Talarico slip through. Kind of like Doug Jones vs Roy Moore in AL, they’ll tell themselves they can knock out Talarico with a more conventional GOP candidate in 6 years.